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Prediction for CME (2023-06-20T17:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-06-20T17:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25642/-1
CME Note: Large CME visible to the East in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2. The source of this CME is the X1.1 class flare from AR13341 peaking at 2023-06-20T17:09Z associated with a widespread EUV wave from the Eastern side of the disk towards the central meridian of the Earth-facing disk (best seen in SDO/AIA 211 and 193), as well as dimming (visible in SDO/AIA 193) directed towards the NW of the source location. A post-eruptive arcade follows the eruption which is best seen in SDO/AIA 171 starting around 2023-06-20T17:45Z. From Tarik Mohammad, LASSOS: There is an arrival of HSS on June 23. I doubt that we see a CME arrival in late June 24. The field components look similar (especially B_y) before and after the approximated arrival. The higher magnetic field strength can occur due to some form of compression (seems like the average speed in this interval is higher than the previous).
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-06-23T13:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:T2023-06-20 20:14
Radial velocity (km/s):1205
Longitude (deg):-63
Latitude (deg):-14
Half-angular width (deg):42

Notes: I used the initial CME "nose" as a CME marker in LASCO/STEREOA imagery for this analysis. A second analysis could use the main body of the CME which appears later to see if it produces a different result. Predominately an Earth miss with a small bump in density/speed possibly around 23/1300UT. As a rough estimate the eastward CME didnt not appear to curve back around the Sun-Earth line in LASCO.

Lead Time: 60.40 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2023-06-21T00:36Z

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